FX Trends: The case for USD upside still intact

3 August 2026

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The case for USD upside still intact

Key takeaways

The USD is finishing July on the back foot, hit by the FOMC outcome, JPY intervention, and hawkish signals from outside the US.
While the pullback argues for caution, we still see the broader case for USD upside as intact.
Fed messaging may seek to reinforce inflation-fighting credibility, but renewed USD strength will likely need help from upcoming US data releases.

Our tactical view

^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF.

Source: HSBC

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 31 July 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Tactical view

The USD ended July under pressure after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: markets had flirted with a hike, so the hold triggered dovish repricing, and Chair Warsh’s press conference, which provided no direct insights, extended USD selling. Both of these headwinds are likely to be temporary.
We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) – particularly under new leadership – to reassert its inflation-fighting credibility, with hawkish messaging and upcoming inflation and labour prints potentially rebuilding September hike pricing. Interest rate differentials have reemerged as the USD’s dominant driver, overtaking risk appetite and commodity prices.
US activity has generally surprised to the upside this year (with softer Q2 GDP distorted by oil reserve drawdowns), and GDP estimates for Q3 activity are strong; this makes any Fed tightening more clearly USD-positive than in other G10. Geopolitics may offer episodic support but may not be a sustained catalyst for USD upside.

Tactical view

USD-CNY fixings have continued to drift lower, but the pace of decline has slowed since the 17 June FOMC meeting, after which the US Dollar Index (DXY) moved into a higher trading range.
Broad RMB strength remains intact due to structural factors (RMB internationalisation, productivity gains, expanding trade linkages). But the pace of RMB appreciation versus the USD could slow because of cyclical challenges: divergence in US-China data surprises and widening US-China rate differentials.
The CFETS RMB index has recovered, but even if it consolidates from here, there could still be a change in relative performance within the basket. RMB strength versus the USD, JPY, and KRW has been more pronounced than is recovery versus many European currencies. We estimate that the real RMB exchange rate versus the EUR may be 8-14% lower than historical averages.

Tactical view

EUR-USD had been relatively stable over the past month before a late surge pushed it above 1.15. Its path in August may hinge mostly on USD sentiment which remains the dominant driver; we expect the USD to recover and pull EUR-USD back towards its prior trading range.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates at 2.25% on 23 July and maintained a “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” stance. With no forward guidance and limited concern over second-round inflation effects, policy signals alone look insufficient to drive a sustained EUR-USD rally.
We expect EUR-USD to soften over the next month as the narrative shifts from higher yield support to concerns around a terms-of-trade shock and weaker growth prospects, making energy-driven rate support less reliable. In contrast, a vigilant Fed and resilient US economy should continue to underpin the USD.

Tactical view

We see EUR-GBP trading range-bound in the coming weeks, with higher yields increasingly creating challenges for both currencies.
The EUR’s strong finish to July looks difficult to extend into August, as higher energy prices remain a challenge to growth and further tightening may become a headwind rather than a tailwind to EUR.
High yields have supported the GBP, but with domestic signals less hawkish and geopolitics and fiscal risks still in play, markets may refocus on weak growth; the Monetary Policy Committee looks reluctant to hike without clearer second-round inflation effects.

Tactical view

The GBP faces a familiar mix of headwinds over the next month as UK data point to easing inflation and a cooling labour market, while geopolitics and policy uncertainty keep a risk premium in UK assets. Recent resilience looks conditional on credible rate support and fiscal confidence, both of which appear more fragile heading into August.
UK CPI slowed more than expected in June, signalling that disinflation continues, while higher energy costs have remained largely confined to directly exposed sectors, such as transport. This reduces the case for the Bank of England (BoE) to respond aggressively to inflation risks at this stage.
Limited detail on how new government policies will be funded risks a higher fiscal premium ahead of the Autumn Budget. With recent strength now in the rear-view mirror, we see the GBP trading more defensively over the next month, with rallies harder to extend unless fiscal clarity improves or UK data re-accelerate.

Tactical view

End-July has reintroduced uncertainty into the path of USD-JPY that had previously seemed destined to grind higher. Intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and exchange rate “checks” by the US Treasury (Reuters) drove a sharp drop and brought meaningful two-way risk back into the pair.
Alongside the MoF’s action, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) placed greater emphasis on JPY weakness and its inflation implications. While it kept rates unchanged in July as expected, it cited JPY depreciation as a driver of inflation.
It remains difficult to make the case for a sustained move lower in USD-JPY. The market seems willing to buy MoF-induced dips, and we expect the broad USD to recover some recent losses. This means further intervention may have to contend with renewed USD demand rather than benefit from USD selling.

Tactical view

EUR-JPY may drift lower in the weeks ahead, as further JPY-supportive intervention looks likely, while higher energy prices remain a headwind for the EUR.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) is likely to remain active in supporting the JPY, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has given greater prominence to JPY weakness in terms of its implications for inflation, and by extension, monetary policy.
The EUR remains constrained by a soft Eurozone growth backdrop: despite a better Q2 GDP print, investment is still falling, while employment continues to decline in the largest economies, leaving the region exposed to renewed energy cost volatility.

Tactical view

We expect USD-CHF to push higher in the coming weeks as the markets refocus on interest rate differentials.
In our view, the risk of Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention places a cap on CHF strength: any excessive CHF safe-haven appreciation in the event of a sharp equity selloff would likely to be countered with further intervention threats.
Despite this, the case for an aggressive intervention campaign looks limited, as headline inflation appears to be stabilising comfortably above the lower bound of the SNB’s target range.

Tactical view

The CHF has been weighed down by its lowest yield in G10, even amid recent equity market volatility. Headlines that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is willing to keep the policy rate on hold at 0% to end-2027 also show how wide rate differentials are between the CHF and the rest of G10 (Bloomberg, 27 July 2026).
Yet, we believe EUR-CHF has largely caught up with the move in yield spreads since March, and further upside looks limited, given the increasingly fragile rates support underpinning the EUR.
The CHF should still attract “safe haven” demand in risk-off episodes, and recent weakness could partly reverse if equities soften. Intervention risk looks low but could be tested by inflation data. Overall, we expect EUR-CHF to trade sideways in coming weeks.

Tactical view

USD-CAD has become less USD-dominated in the last couple of months, with rate differentials, commodities and risk appetite all competing for influence – without a clear dominant driver.
We still see the broad USD index as the mostly likely source of movement over the next month, as markets expect Fed policy to remain on hold and anticipate inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) in September, limiting scope for rates to drive the pair.
Despite the weaker USDs grip, commodities and risk appetite have not become more influential. USD-CAD is therefore likely to stay range-bound, with a move back towards June highs more likely than a retest of support in the weeks ahead.

Tactical view

AUD-USD remains primarily driven by the broad USD, while domestic factors have not provided a fresh lift; rate differentials have recently turned from support in Q1 into a headwind.
Further, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening is increasingly framed as coming at the expense of local growth (per Governor Bullock, Bloomberg 28 July), making hikes less supportive for the AUD.
Even if the RBA positions at its 11 August meeting to keep further hikes on the table, markets have largely priced this in, and the associated stagflation risk would likely weigh on the AUD. Hence, we see a stronger broad USD taking AUD-USD lower in the coming weeks

Tactical view

We expect the NZD to outperform the AUD in the near term, as the AUD-NZD still appears rich relative to its interest rate differential.
We believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) stance is NZD-positive with the central bank priced to hike among the most in G10 over the coming year while markets are increasingly pricing the end of the RBA’s hiking cycle.

Tactical view

The NZD has been aided by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish hike on 8 July hike and further improvement in local activity data. Indications that the central bank can match aggressive market pricing for a hiking cycle have in turn benefited the currency.
Despite recent outperformance, the NZD has still underperformed what would typically be implied by moves in global equities, highlighting offsetting forces that can keep NZD-USD broadly range-bound even amid USD strength.
With no RBNZ meeting until 2 September, upcoming domestic releases – labour market (4 August), PMIs (13/16 August) and business confidence (31 August) – will be key to sustaining RBNZ pricing and underpinning NZD support. We, therefore, look for the NZD to stay resilient, moving sideways versus the USD.

Note: *Priced as at 22:34 HKT on 31 July 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Dovish

Dovish refers to an economic outlook which generally supports low interest rates as a means of encouraging growth within the economy.

Hawkish

Hawkish is typically used to describe monetary policy which favours higher interest rates, and tighter monetary controls to keep inflation in check.

MoM / YoY

Month on month / Year on year

PMI

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic health of the manufacturing sector (>50 represents expansion vs. the previous month).

IMM data

International Monetary Market (IMM) is a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that deals with the trading of currencies and interest rate futures and options and the IMM data is part of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provides a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open futures positions on the IMM. Speculative positions are a trader’s non-commercial positions (i.e. not for hedging purposes).

G10

G10 refers to the most heavily traded, liquid currencies in the world: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK, and SEK.

Fed / FOMC

Federal Reserve System (US’s Central Bank)/Federal Open Market Committee.

ECB

European Central Bank (Eurozone’sCentral Bank).

BOE

Bank of England (UK’s Central Bank).

BOJ

Bank of Japan (Japan’s Central Bank).

BOC

Bank of Canada (Canada’s Central Bank).

RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s Central Bank).

RBNZ

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (New Zealand’s Central Bank).

SNB

Swiss National Bank (Switzerland’s Central Bank).

Spot: Spot refers to the current market price of a currency pair that is important for immediate transactions.

50 dma: 50-day simple moving average number represents the average price of an index or a currency pair over the past 50 days.

Support (S), Resistance (R): Support and resistance are significant previous lows and highs plus retracement levels, based on historical price patterns of an index or a currency pair. Support is a historical price level where a downtrend of a currency pair paused due to demand for the first currency quoted in the pair increasing, while resistance is a historical price level where an uptrend of a currency pair reversed amid demand for the second currency quoted in the pair increasing.

HSBC Positioning Indices: The indicators have been devised to track the net position of momentum traders, looking at hundreds of strategies, operating over many different time horizons. It considers time horizons of 5 days up to 260 days. An indicator level of +10 would indicate that the hundreds of different strategies have all lined up and gone long (i.e., buy the first currency quoted in the pair). Similarly, an indicator level of -10 indicates that all strategies are short (i.e., sell the first currency quoted in the pair).

Tactical view where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY): An up (é) / down (ê) / sideways (➔) arrow indicates that the first currency quoted in the pair is expected by HSBC Global Investment Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks.

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FX Trends: The case for USD upside still intact

Key takeaways

Our tactical view

HSBC Positioning Indices

DXY

USD-CNY

EUR-USD

EUR-GBP

GBP-USD

USD-JPY

EUR-JPY

USD-CHF

EUR-CHF

USD-CAD

AUD-USD

AUD-NZD

NZD-USD

Glossary

Explanation of terms

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