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FX Navigator (Jul): When a strong USD returns: Winners vs. laggards

29 June 2026

Key takeaways

  • A shift in the Federal Reserve’s messaging is materially supportive for the USD, increasing the likelihood of a break-out from established trading ranges.
  • The CNY, AUD and NZD may prove more resilient than other currencies during a USD rally.
  • Lower oil prices may add downside risk for the CAD, leaving it comparatively more exposed.

Our tactical view

^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF.

Source: HSBC

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 26 June 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Note: *Priced as at 19:20 HKT on 26 June 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

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