6 October 2026
Key takeaways
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Export-oriented manufacturing and select investment are driving growth resilience in 3Q.
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Informal sector consumption could moderate as inflation erodes purchasing power, fiscal targets slow public capex, and financial conditions tighten − but we are not too worried about growth.
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Export exuberance could be the star of the season, moving from high-tech (led by INR depreciation) to mid-tech (led by FTAs), providing a floor to growth (HSBC: 7.2% in FY27).
A string of strong readings – IP (8% in Aug), non-oil exports (21% in Aug), public capex (c25% Apr-Aug), credit growth (19% in Sep). Our 100 indicators database shows that c70% of the indicators grew positively in Aug (vs 52% in Mar-Jul). Manufacturing has been particularly robust and is likely to remain so as the Sep flash PMI points to a sharp rise in new orders. Going by these trends, GDP is tracking at c7.5% in 3Q26.
The source of this resilience is broad-based, despite disruptions caused by energy and adverse weather. Consumption, shielded from the energy shock via excise duty cuts and incomplete pass-through of higher input costs, remains steady. Investment was robust, led by public capex alongside private investment in emerging sectors like data centres, semiconductors and renewables. Non-oil exports, particularly high-tech exports like electronics and engineering goods, have risen quickly.
What’s the course ahead? As the supportive effects of accommodative monetary policy and GST cuts fade, growth is likely to slow at the margin. The weakness will likely be most visible in the informal sector consumption. El Niño-related disruption and a faster pass-through of higher input costs are likely to push up inflation, eroding the purchasing power of lower-income households disproportionately. Already, the sequential momentum of domestic GST collections, 2W sales, rural and small-firms wages have softened. Public capex, too, will likely moderate in 2HFY27 as fiscal targets become binding. Finally, financial conditions are likely to tighten with interest rate hikes, both globally and domestically. We expect RBI to hike the repo rate by 50bp in 4Q26. But fear not.
Goods exports – the star of the season. Growing 20% y-o-y in volume and 26% in value in Aug, these are providing a solid floor to growth. High-tech exports remain strong and could strengthen more helped by the c15% REER depreciation since early 2025. However, labour-intensive mid-tech exports like apparel, furniture, leather, gems and jewellery have been sluggish for a decade. The recent trade agreements with consumption-oriented economies such as the EU and UK, if implemented effectively, could reduce India’s tariff disadvantage and expand market access for mid-tech exports. Already since the UK FTA was actioned, exports to the UK have risen quickly (up 12% m-o-m sa in Aug).
Related Insights
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